DYNAMICS OF SIR MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN PAKISTAN UNDER FRACTAL-FRACTIONAL DERIVATIVE

There are still mathematical predictions in the fight against epidemics. Speedy expansion, ways and procedures for pandemic control require early understanding when solutions with better computer-based modeling prognosis developed. Despite high uncertainty each of these models, one important tools public health management system is epidemiology models. The fractional order shown to be more effective epidemic diseases, relation memory effects. Notably, recently founded calculus tools, called fractal-fractional calculus, having a fractal dimension, enable us study behavior real-world problem under both tools. This paper about dynamical new model novel corona disease (COVID-19) Atangana–Baleanu derivative. considered has three compartments, namely, susceptible, infected recovered or removed (SIR). existence uniqueness model’s solution will proved via Krasnoselskii’s Banach’s fixed point theorems, respectively. stability sense Hyers–Ulam (HU) built up by nonlinear functional analysis. Moreover, numerical simulations different values isolation parameters corresponding various orders analyzed using Adams–Bashforth (AB) method two-step Lagrange polynomial. Finally, obtained simulation results applied real data spread from Pakistan. graphical interpretations demonstrate that increasing which caused strict precautionary measures reduce infection transmission society.